Tata Steel Stock: ₹210 Target Price | 27% Upside (57 chars)

Tata Steel continues to earn a BUY rating with a target price of ₹210. That's a solid 27% upside from the current price of ₹166.

TATA is entering a multi-year expansion phase with parallel bets across long products, flat products, and downstream segments. The recent TPPL acquisition secures raw material supply, while NINL expansion and LMEL partnership position the company for capacity doubling by FY30.

Here's a quick snapshot of Tata Steel:

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Why Tata Steel Remains a BUY?

Three factors continue to drive conviction in India's largest steel player:

1. Raw Material Security Through Strategic Acquisitions

The TPPL acquisition gives TATA direct access to a 4mtpa pellet plant and 212km slurry pipeline. This secures long-term pellet supply for India operations and supports backward integration. The deal is strategically margin-accretive with potential monthly savings of ₹500-600 million and approximately one-year payback.

2. Domestic Capacity Doubling by FY30

TATA is on track to double capacity from 21.5mtpa in FY21 to 40mtpa by FY30. The NINL expansion (4.8mtpa), Meramandali relining (~2.5mtpa incremental), and potential LMEL partnership (6mtpa greenfield) provide clear visibility on this growth path.

3. Europe Turnaround Underway

The European business is steadily improving towards breakeven. While FY25 saw EBITDA/t of USD(45), the trajectory is positive with restructuring largely complete. Any improvement in European performance will be incremental to earnings.

The TPPL Acquisition: Securing Feedstock

On 10th December 2025, Tata Steel agreed to acquire a 50.01% stake in Thriveni Pellets (TPPL) from Thriveni Earthmovers (TEMPL) for a cash consideration of ₹6.36 billion.

What TATA Gets:

After deal completion, TATA becomes the controlling shareholder while Llyods Metals & Energy (LMEL) continues as partner with 49.99% stake.

Why This Matters:

The acquisition supports TATA's long-term strategy of securing feedstock against expiring iron ore mining leases by FY30. Pellet is a key raw material for BF-BOF and DRI units. The deal was done at approximately 1x Book Value, offering potential monthly savings of ₹500-600 million with roughly one-year payback timeline.

The transaction requires CCI approval and is expected to close within 3-4 months.

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Domestic Steel Capacity Expansion

TATA has reiterated its long-term India strategy focusing on volume expansion, value-added downstream products, mining infrastructure, and low-carbon steelmaking. The company is prioritizing capex in India and moving into a growth-acceleration phase.

1. NINL Expansion: From 1mtpa to 4.8mtpa

The board approved a 4.8mtpa expansion under Phase-I of its long-term plan (target: 10mtpa). This will be fully long-products capacity with configuration of:

• 2×1mtpa rebar mills
• 0.5mtpa coil-mill
• High-end wire rod mill

Execution will take approximately 3-4 years. Iron ore requirement for incremental capacity will be fulfilled by captive source (Koira iron ore mines).

2. Enhancing Long Products Portfolio

Long products contribute ~55-60% of India's steel demand and it's a largely fragmented segment. TATA's current market share stands at 15%, with a target to reach 25% through rising long product portfolio. This will cushion operations against cheaper imports.

Focus areas include premium long products like Alloy-Wire Rod, Tire cord, Auto wire, and high-end rebar coils. Tata Tiscon retail has already achieved monthly sales of 200,000 tonnes.

3. Meramandali Expansion

The thin slab caster and rolling mill are linked to Meramandali blast furnace relining project planned for FY28-29E. The relining will unlock approximately 2.5mtpa of additional upstream capacity, which will be converted into finished steel via TSCR. In the long-run, Meramandali capacity will move towards ~6.5mtpa.

4. Downstream: HR Pickling & Galvanizing (Tarapur)

The board approved a 0.7mtpa HRPGL at Tarapur (Tata Steel BlueScope JV). This will get commissioned fastest among all projects announced. It will boost the value-added products mix, catering to auto and appliance segments, enable import substitution, and strengthen TATA's leadership in coated steel.

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Strategic Collaboration with LMEL in Gadchiroli

TATA signed an MoU with Llyods Metals & Energy to partner in iron ore mining and logistics, including slurry pipeline, pellet, and steel making.

What's Being Explored:

All proposals remain subject to due diligence and approvals. The final decision is completely dependent on viability based on iron-ore availability, operation model, cost structure, and ore quality.

The Fe content of iron ore/Banded Hematite Quartzite (BHQ) of LMEL stands at ~35% Fe, which increases to ~67% Fe via beneficiation process. TATA already consumes ~2mt of upstream volume in Maharashtra (Tarapur/Khaopli) which comes from Odisha. With this partnership, material could be supplied from Maharashtra facility.

Hisarna: Low-Carbon Technology Differentiator

The board approved proceeding with engineering and regulatory approvals for establishing a 1mtpa demonstration plant in Jamshedpur based on Hisarna low-carbon technology.

Key Details:

Hisarna technology enables low-carbon steelmaking by eliminating coke and using low-grade ore with slag. This positions TATA as a long-term differentiator for sustainable steelmaking.

Capacity Roadmap: 2x in 10 Years

TATA is scaling to capitalize on India's steel growth opportunity:

This represents a doubling of capacity over 10 years.

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Shipment Outlook: 35mt by FY28E

Robust domestic volume growth will drive overall consolidated revenue to ₹2.66 trillion by FY28E.

Financial Outlook: FY26-28

Strong domestic performance with improving European trajectory expected.

Standalone Operations:

Europe Operations:

Europe is steadily improving towards breakeven and beyond. Incremental EBITDA from Europe will drive overall consolidated EBITDA improvement.

Leverage Trajectory:

Capex intensity will rise but remain phased, keeping leverage within comfort.

Why ₹210 Target Price Makes Sense

TATA is valued using SOTP methodology based on Sep'27E estimates:

Current Valuations:

At 6.5x FY27E EV/EBITDA and 1.8x P/B, the stock is trading near its historical average. Given the capacity expansion visibility and improving profitability trajectory, the valuation looks reasonable.

Should You Buy Tata Steel Stock?

Here's the complete breakdown:

Reasons to Consider Buying:

• Largest player in India's steel sector with strong domestic demand outlook
• TPPL acquisition secures raw material with ~₹500-600m monthly savings
• Capacity doubling from 21.5mtpa to 40mtpa by FY30
• NINL expansion strengthens long products portfolio
• Europe steadily improving towards profitability
• Hisarna technology provides low-carbon steelmaking edge
• Net debt/equity improving from 0.9x to 0.5x by FY28E
• RoE improving from 4.6% to 16.4%

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Risks You Should Know:

• Near-term challenges persist due to global uncertainty around tariff escalations
• Steel prices remain muted – domestic HRC/Rebar prices have weakened
• Europe macro environment remains weak with OEMs pushing discounts
• Iron ore mining leases expiring by FY30 – need multiple options
• Capex intensity rising with multiple expansion projects
• Commodity price cyclicality can impact realizations

Who Should Buy:

• Investors with 12+ month horizon
• Those seeking exposure to India's infrastructure and steel demand story
• Value investors comfortable with cyclical sectors
• Position size: 3-5% of equity portfolio

Who Should Avoid:

• Short-term traders expecting quick gains
• Those uncomfortable with commodity price volatility
• Risk-averse investors seeking stable earnings

The Bottom Line for Tata Steel

Tata Steel is entering a multi-year expansion phase with clear visibility on capacity doubling by FY30. The TPPL acquisition and LMEL partnership secure raw material supply, while NINL expansion and Meramandali relining add significant volume.

The stock suits investors with 12+ month horizons who want exposure to India's infrastructure-led steel demand story. At 6.5x FY27E EV/EBITDA with improving RoE trajectory from 4.6% to 16.4%, the valuation looks reasonable for India's largest steel producer.

Near-term, watch for steel price recovery, Europe turnaround progress, and execution on expansion projects. The Hisarna technology pilot could emerge as a long-term differentiator for sustainable steelmaking.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is Tata Steel's target price?

The target price is ₹210, representing 27% upside from ₹166. The target is based on SOTP valuation using Sep'27E estimates, with 7.5x multiple for standalone, 6.0x for Europe, and 4.0x for other subsidiaries.

2. Is Tata Steel a good stock to buy?

TATA maintains a BUY rating. The stock suits investors with 12+ month horizons who want exposure to India's steel demand story. Key positives: capacity doubling by FY30, TPPL acquisition securing feedstock, improving Europe performance. Key risks: commodity price volatility, tariff uncertainties.

3. What is the TPPL acquisition about?

TATA is acquiring 50.01% stake in Thriveni Pellets for ₹6.36 billion. This gives access to a 4mtpa pellet plant and 212km slurry pipeline in Odisha. The deal secures long-term pellet supply with potential monthly savings of ₹500-600 million.

4. What is TATA's capacity expansion plan?

TATA plans to double capacity from 21.5mtpa (FY21) to 40mtpa by FY30. Key additions include NINL expansion (+5mtpa), KPO-III (+5mtpa), and BSL expansion (+3.5mtpa). Additionally, the LMEL partnership could add 6mtpa greenfield capacity.

5. How is TATA's Europe business performing?

Europe is steadily improving towards breakeven. FY25 EBITDA/t was USD(45), but FY27E is expected at USD58 and FY28E at USD66. Europe restructuring is largely complete, and improvement in European performance will support overall earnings.

6. What is Hisarna technology?

Hisarna is a low-carbon steelmaking technology that eliminates coke and uses low-grade ore with slag. TATA owns 100% IP rights and is setting up a 1mtpa demonstration plant in Jamshedpur with capex of ₹2.5-3 billion. It offers cost advantage of ~₹3,000/t versus traditional BF route.

7. What is TATA's growth outlook?

Revenue expected to grow from ₹2,185 billion (FY25) to ₹2,661 billion (FY28E). EBITDA expected to grow from ₹259 billion to ₹469 billion. Adj. PAT expected to grow from ₹42 billion to ₹196 billion. RoE improves from 4.6% to 15.8%.

8. What are the key risks for Tata Steel?

Near-term risks include global tariff uncertainties, muted steel prices, and weak Europe demand. Long-term risks include iron ore mining lease expiries by FY30 and capex intensity rising with multiple expansion projects. Steel sector cyclicality remains an inherent risk.