Stock Market Forecast For The Next Six Months

With the new financial year having just begun, investors and traders alike are all curious about how the Indian stock market may perform in the next few months. Whether you are planning to invest in the market over the long term or intending to trade in stocks to capitalise on short-term price movements, you need to know the stock market forecast for the coming weeks and months. 

For instance, if you are an intraday trader or a swing trader, you need to track tomorrow’s market predictions and make decisions accordingly. Similarly, if you have a more long-term outlook, the share market forecast for the next month or year may be of more importance to you. 

Let us take a closer look at the Indian stock market forecast for the next six months or so. 

Sensex and Nifty Forecast for FY25

In FY24, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 recorded impressive performances — with the Sensex gaining 29% and the Nifty 50 rising by 25%. This growth was primarily driven by various factors like strong economic growth, solid corporate results, dynamic IPO activity and overall bullish investment sentiment. Despite challenges like global geopolitical tensions and weaker-than-expected earnings in some quarters, the Indian stock market remained resilient. 

If this resilience continues, the share market forecast for the next few months may also be optimistic. Experts anticipate that in the best-case scenario, the Sensex may hit a range of 82,500 to 84,700 — recording a rise of 12-15%. However, in the worst-case scenario, the BSE’s benchmark index may see a decline of around 5%, to 69,950. 

Similarly, the stock market forecast for the Nifty 50 suggests a target of 23,600 with a potential upside. This, however, depends on various conditional factors like budgetary outcomes and a favourable monsoon. 

Increased Inflows from FIIs

Another important aspect to consider in today’s share market is the inflow of capital from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). The previous fiscal year saw global investors infusing around Rs. 2.08 lakh crores in India’s equity market. 

In FY25 too, the stock market forecast includes expectations of increased inflows from FIIs — which may be driven by several key factors like robust economic growth and continued momentum in earnings growth in the country. The top sectors that may continue to benefit from FII activity in FY25 include financial services, oil and gas, information technology, FMCG, capital goods and healthcare. 

Possible Market Consolidation

For traders and investors, it’s not enough to just know tomorrow’s market prediction. It’s also crucial to be aware of the phase the market is in — which may be trend continuation, reversal or consolidation. In FY25, we may see a period of consolidation in the coming months. 

Experts expect the consolidation range for the Nifty 50 to be fairly large, with a bottom end of 19,000 and a top end of 24,300. The benchmark indices are also expected to correct in the post-election period. So, if you are tracking the share market today looking for swing trading opportunities, you need to account for market consolidation. 

In addition to the election results, another factor that may be driving the potential market consolidation in the coming months is the new government’s budget session, which may be possibly scheduled for July 2024. 

Another aspect to consider is the case of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). With global crude oil prices having been rising steadily and hitting a 5-month high due to geopolitical tensions, investors need to consider if Indian OMC stocks will be resilient to these developments and withstand the selling pressure in the next few months. 

Stock Market Forecast: Sectors in Focus 

The stock market forecast for the next few months also focuses on the sectors that could gain priority depending on the outcomes of the general elections. With the ‘Make in India’ initiative being a big part of the economy in recent years, the manufacturing sector may likely continue to be in the spotlight. 

Additionally, we may also see other sectors like new-age information technology, infrastructure and clean energy take centre stage in FY25. However, investors need to keep up with new domestic and global developments to better understand which sectors to leverage and include in their portfolios in the next few months. 

Factors Driving the Positive Stock Market Forecast

The positive stock market forecast can be traced back to several key factors that are shaping India's economic landscape. One critical driver is the projected doubling of India's GDP by 2030 — which creates a conducive environment for stock market growth. This growth trajectory is also furthered by favourable demographic trends and strong policy support, both of which encourage investment and business expansion across diverse sectors in India.

Additionally, the formalisation of the economy through technological advancements, regulatory reforms and increased transparency has also fostered a conducive environment for businesses — especially in organised sectors. This trend is further complemented by rising discretionary spending among the expanding middle class, which is driving demand for a wide range of goods and services.

Conclusion

These expert predictions and analyses may act as indicators for investors and traders to understand potential market movements better. However, while they may be guideposts, it is not enough to rely only on share market forecasts to plan your trades or investments. You must always perform fundamental analysis (for long-term investments) or technical analysis (for short-term trades) in addition to accounting for stock market predictions. 

The Motilal Oswal Research 360 platform can be instrumental in this regard. You can explore various features like market updates, stock screeners, research reports, result analysis, news and announcements and more. Sign up on the platform today to access all these features from anywhere at any time.